Gwaro reWorld Trade Organisation pamusoro peGlobal Trade Data and Outlook rakabudiswa neWorld Trade Organisation rinoti nekuda kwekusimbaradza kwakasimba kwekutengeserana kwenyika muchikamu chechitatu, kuita kwese kwekutengeserana kwenyika gore rino kuchange kuri nani pane zvaimbotarisirwa.Zvisineyi, nyanzvi munyaya dzezvehupfumi dzeWorld Trade Organisation dzazivisawo kuti nekufamba kwenguva, tarisiro yekuti kutengeserana pasi rose kusati kwave netarisiro yakanaka nekuda kwekusajeka kwakadai sekusimudzirwa kwedenda remangwana.Izvi zvichaunza matambudziko matsva kune eChina ceramic inotengeswa kunze kwenyika.

Kuitwa kwekutengeserana kwaive nani pane zvaitarisirwa

Chirevo che "Global Trade Data uye Outlook" chinoratidza kuti kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwezvinhu kuchadonha ne9.2% muna 2020, uye kushanda kwekutengeserana kwepasi rose kunogona kunge kuri nani pane zvinotarisirwa.WTO yakafanotaura muna Kubvumbi gore rino kuti kutengeserana kwepasirese kuchadonha ne13% kusvika 32% muna 2020.

WTO yakatsanangura kuti kutengeserana kwepasirese kwegore rino kwanga kuri nani pane zvaitarisirwa, zvichikonzerwa nekuitwa kwemitemo yakasimba yemari neyemari nenyika zhinji kuti dzitsigire mihoro yenyika nevemakambani, izvo zvakakonzera kukurumidza kudzoreredzwa muhukuru hwekushandisa uye kunze kwenyika mushure meiyo nyika. "kuvhura" uye nekumhanyisa basa rehupfumi kudzoreredza.

Dhiyabhorosi inoratidza kuti muchikamu chechipiri chegore rino, kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwezvinhu kwakasangana nekuderera kwezvakaitika kare, nekudonha kwemwedzi-pamwedzi kwe14.3%.Zvisinei, kubva munaJune kusvika munaJuly, kutengeserana kwenyika yose kwakashanda zvakasimba, kusunungura chiratidzo chakanaka chekudzikisa kunze uye kusimudza zvinotarisirwa zvekushanda kwegore rose.Huyero hwekutengesa hwezvigadzirwa zvine chekuita nedenda senge zvekushandisa pakurapa zvakura zvichipesana nemaitiro aya, izvo zvagadzirisa zvishoma kukanganiswa kwekutengesa mune mamwe maindasitiri.Pakati pavo, zvidziviriro zvekuzvidzivirira nazvo zvakasangana nekukura kwe "kuputika" panguva yedenda, uye chiyero chekutengeserana chepasi rose chakawedzera ne92% mukota yechipiri.

WHO Chief Economist Robert Koopman akati kunyange hazvo kudzikira kwekutengeserana pasi rose gore rino kwakafanana neiyo ye2008-2009 dambudziko rezvemari repasi rose, zvichienzaniswa nehukuru hwekushanduka kwechigadzirwa chepasi rose (GDP) panguva yematambudziko maviri, Global trade performance. yawedzera kusimba pasi pedenda iri gore rino.Sangano reWorld Trade Organization rinofanotaura kuti GDP yepasi rose ichaderera ne 4,8% gore rino, saka kuderera kwekutengeserana kwepasi rose kunenge kaviri kuderera kweGDP yepasi rose, uye kuderera kwekutengeserana kwepasi rose muna 2009 kunenge ka6 kune GDP yepasi rose.

Nzvimbo dzakasiyana uye maindasitiri

Coleman Lee, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuWorld Trade Organisation, akaudza vatori venhau kuti chiyero cheChina kunze kwenyika panguva yedenda chakakwira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, ukuwo kudiwa kwekunze kwakaramba kwakagadzikana, izvo zvakakonzera kuwedzera kukura kwekutengeserana kwemukati medunhu muAsia.

Panguva imwecheteyo, pasi pedenda, kushanda kwekutengeserana kwenyika mumabhizimisi akasiyana-siyana hakuna kufanana.Muchikamu chechipiri, huwandu hwekutengesa kwepasi rose hwemafuta uye zvigadzirwa zvemigodhi hwakadonha ne38% nekuda kwezvinhu zvakaita sekudonha kwemitengo uye kuderera kwakanyanya kwekushandisa.Munguva imwecheteyo, huwandu hwekutengesa kwezvigadzirwa zvekurima sezvinodiwa zvezuva nezuva zvakadonha ne5%.Mukati meindasitiri yekugadzira, zvigadzirwa zvemotokari zvanyanya kurohwa nedenda.Yakakanganiswa nekuremara kweketani uye kuderedzwa kwevatengi, kutengeserana kwepasi rose muchikamu chechipiri kwadzikira neinopfuura hafu;panguva imwecheteyo, chiyero chekutengeserana mumakomputa uye zvigadzirwa zvemishonga chakawedzera.Sezvimwe zvezvinodikanwa zvehupenyu hwevanhu, mazuva ese-anoshandisa ceramics akakosha kwazvo pakugadzirwa pasi pemamiriro edenda.

Tarisiro yokunaya haina chokwadi zvikuru

WTO yakayambira kuti nekuda kwekuvandudzwa kwedenda uye nzira dzekurwisa denda dzinoitwa nenyika dzakasiyana siyana, tarisiro yekupora haisati yanyatso zivikanwa.Chirevo chakagadziridzwa che "Global Trade Data uye Outlook" chakadzikisa kukura kwekutengeserana kwepasirese muna 2021 kubva pa21.3% kusvika 7.2%, ichisimbisa kuti chiyero chekutengeserana gore rinouya chichave chakaderera zvakanyanya pane danho risati raitika.

Chirevo chakagadziridzwa che "Global Trade Data neOutlook" inotenda kuti munguva yepakati, kana hupfumi hwepasi rose hunogona kuwana kusimba kwakasimba huchanyanya kuenderana nekuita kweramangwana rekudyara uye basa, uye kuita kwezvose zviri zviviri kunoenderana nekuvimba kwekambani.Kana denda rikamuka zvakare mune ramangwana uye hurumende ikagadzirisa zvakare matanho e "blockade", chivimbo chekambani chinozunguzika.

Nekufamba kwenguva, kuzvimba kwechikwereti cheveruzhinji kuchakanganisawo kutengeserana kwepasi rose uye kukura kwehupfumi, uye nyika dzisina kusimukira dzinogona kutarisana nemutoro unorema wechikwereti.